2008
So, in two consecutive election cycles, John Kline wins re-election by identical 56-40 margins.
A few thoughts. In 2004, Teresa Daly had money. Unfortunately, it seems that's about all she had; she certainly didn't have a winning message (she supported both the Iraq occupation and eliminating the estate tax. Why would any voter who favors those positions vote for a Democrat instead of Kline?). In 2006, Coleen Rowley had a winning message --- on a national scale, the "U.S. out of Iraq" and anti-corruption positions won a resounding endorsement, and that was reflected in MN-02 as shown in Amy Klobuchar's totals here. Once again, however, message was pretty much all Rowley had. Hers was an inexperienced campaign [take for example the role I played in it], which made a brutal blunder early on, a blunder which no doubt accounts for at least 6-8 percentage points of Kline's victory margin, if not more. And of course, she raised only half the money Daly did.
And let's be frank: neither Daly nor Rowley are great rhetoricians. Kline gladly debated Daly at every opportunity in 2004, because he mopped the floor with her every time. Kline largely avoided debating Rowley in 2006 becase (a) he could, and (b) even though she's not a great debater, she was right on the issues, and the more opportunities he gave her to demonstrate that, the worse it was for him.
So where do we go from here?
Well, ideally we need a candidate in 2008 who can raise Teresa Daly's money (and more) with Coleen's message. And it would be great to have a candidate who can dish up some smackdown in a debate.
Who is that candidate? I don't know. I know Sharon Marko considered running and --- although she has tried to retroactively hide the fact --- actually did run for a little over 5 weeks in February. Her fundraising totals were roughly one-third of Coleen's over that time, so I'm not too optimistic she can raise the million-plus necessary to beat Kline. Then again, maybe she wasn't really putting that much effort into it.
Anyway, one thing is clear: John Kline doesn't like it that I publish the facts about his record. That's why he spent $50,000-plus smearing me this cycle. But I'm not going anywhere. So if there are any Democrats out there thinking about a 2008 run, and would like my support, feel free to give me a holler.
Over the next few weeks, I'll be migrating my posts [which are not position statements!] from Coleen Rowley's campaign weblog over here, so that nothing gets lost if/when Rowley's site goes away.
A few thoughts. In 2004, Teresa Daly had money. Unfortunately, it seems that's about all she had; she certainly didn't have a winning message (she supported both the Iraq occupation and eliminating the estate tax. Why would any voter who favors those positions vote for a Democrat instead of Kline?). In 2006, Coleen Rowley had a winning message --- on a national scale, the "U.S. out of Iraq" and anti-corruption positions won a resounding endorsement, and that was reflected in MN-02 as shown in Amy Klobuchar's totals here. Once again, however, message was pretty much all Rowley had. Hers was an inexperienced campaign [take for example the role I played in it], which made a brutal blunder early on, a blunder which no doubt accounts for at least 6-8 percentage points of Kline's victory margin, if not more. And of course, she raised only half the money Daly did.
And let's be frank: neither Daly nor Rowley are great rhetoricians. Kline gladly debated Daly at every opportunity in 2004, because he mopped the floor with her every time. Kline largely avoided debating Rowley in 2006 becase (a) he could, and (b) even though she's not a great debater, she was right on the issues, and the more opportunities he gave her to demonstrate that, the worse it was for him.
So where do we go from here?
Well, ideally we need a candidate in 2008 who can raise Teresa Daly's money (and more) with Coleen's message. And it would be great to have a candidate who can dish up some smackdown in a debate.
Who is that candidate? I don't know. I know Sharon Marko considered running and --- although she has tried to retroactively hide the fact --- actually did run for a little over 5 weeks in February. Her fundraising totals were roughly one-third of Coleen's over that time, so I'm not too optimistic she can raise the million-plus necessary to beat Kline. Then again, maybe she wasn't really putting that much effort into it.
Anyway, one thing is clear: John Kline doesn't like it that I publish the facts about his record. That's why he spent $50,000-plus smearing me this cycle. But I'm not going anywhere. So if there are any Democrats out there thinking about a 2008 run, and would like my support, feel free to give me a holler.
Over the next few weeks, I'll be migrating my posts [which are not position statements!] from Coleen Rowley's campaign weblog over here, so that nothing gets lost if/when Rowley's site goes away.
posted by David Bailey | 8:16 AM
1 Comments:
Good luck finding anyone to run after the butt-whooping Kline put on Rowley. Republicans got spanked all over the 2nd District but your girl couldn't even improve on Teresa Daly's numbers.
Post a Comment
<< Home